An Historic Day

Yes, Kelly Brook got canned as a Britain's Got Talent judge. Hyuk, hyuk, huyk.

So, Barack Hussein Obama is the 44th president of the United States. It seems such a long time since November already and those scenes of Jesse Jackson weeping in Chicago. But the atmosphere was no less celebratory. The fact that millions showed up in sub zero conditions in Washington to see this moments is testament enough to that.

And we should enjoy this moment, because from here on in it gets rougher. To be fair to Obama his speech said as much to the world. The work to fix things is going to take a long time and is not going to be easy. He's likely to face great opposition in some places. But he has to succeed, in just the way that FDR had to when he followed the hapless Herbert Hoover. I liked his speech: measured, calm (unlike the few moments before when he was sworn in) and understanding of the size of the task before him.

The hope and the epxectation has been ramped up so high that it is almost inevitable that he will fail; he cannot hope to reach the heights that others expect him to. We should be more measured, though. This man is not a messiah, he is a politician but a greatly skilled one judging by his past. He has tried (largely unsuccessfully) to mange people's expectations following his election. He has also done the right thing by surrounding himself with others of great skill and experience, because he cannot do what needs to be done alone. But he also seems to be keen to try something new; that is probably his greatest strength right now at a time when it's clear that the way things have been has not worked. He should be judged, not on how far short he will fall of the outrageous expectations heaped upon his shoulders, but on what he actually does. And that is a judgment that cannot be made now. Give the man time.

The other major advantage he has is that he has succeeded probably the least effective president in living memory. Expectations are low and the will for him to succeed is high. For a while at least he will be given some slack. The great question is: how long?

But for now, that all seems rather churlish. For just a fleeting moment, let's enjoy a moment in the sun. The Bush years are over. The work starts tomorrow. For all of us.

Obama

Over the past four days or so I’ve been pretty ill. The last two nights have been the worst. In fact, on both of those last two nights I was been awake pretty much all the way through the night, totally unable to sleep at all. But last night it had some benefit. Even though I was in a lot of pain, my throat was killing me and the antibiotics hadn’t kicked in, I still got the chance to watch the US elections unfold in front of my over-tired eyes. I saw history as it happened and I’m glad I did.

At first there were doubts, but as the night went on there seemed to be an air of destiny in proceedings as first one state, then the next that McCain needed to win to maintain a challenge seemed to call for Obama.

So it was, that at just after 4am, McCain shuffled into view to concede; a diminished and forlorn figure who now looked old, weary and defeated. His concession speech was a masterpiece of measured and restrained dignity, wasted before an unfortunately graceless audience and a glassy-eyed Sarah Palin. Perhaps if he had spent more time being like this, McCain may have attracted more of the centrist vote. As far as the more mental fringes of his own party were concerned, McCain was never the real deal. He struggled to reach even them.

But even I, as a confirmed cynic, was moved watching the tears in Jesse Jackson’s eyes as Obama spoke in Grant Park Chicago. And to be sure it was a hugely impressive speech. It felt somehow aptly historic; a feat of wondrous and beautiful oration, as well as being one of those times when the confluence of the mood and the speech were perfectly matched.

It was almost messianic, if you looked at the crowds. But the speech wasn’t. It was self-consciously un-triumphalist, loaded with the requisite levels of humility and the sure knowledge of a greater truth: there is no way on earth that this man can come anywhere near meeting the expectations that many of these voters will place upon him, however good a president he may turn out to be. The dreams are even more elevated and lofty than ours in the UK were in May 1997, when the grinning Blair landed. This is a movement with real history and real feeling. a folk memory with the undertow of Martin Luther King and the Kennedy brothers to haul it along.

But, just for now, none of that is important. At 5am today, even though I felt like death, I sat in my living room and saw that there is at least some glimmer of hope within us, a sense that we are capable of rising above the petty, quotidian concerns we allow ourselves to be distracted by. And for a moment at least, I felt good.

Barack Obama and the Dumb Question

The dust is now beginning to settle in the US and the realisation is that, for the first time, the presidental election is going to have a serious black candidate. Indeed, most of the talk has been about his race as a stumbling block to his winning the big prize. Certainly, his race will be an issue and much will be made of that as well as the name he bears. As far as I am concerned, however, this is not the major stumbling block for Obama to become president. No, the major problem he has is that he's smart and doesn't mind showing it.

While this sounds somewhat flippant, it is actually as serious point. Most of the American electorate donm't seem to trust a smart politician (and who can blame them?). Tracing the list of holders of the office from the second world war it's easy to see why:

1. FDR: one of the greatest leaders the country ever had and a fearsome intellect;
2. Truman: something of an everyman and a safe pair of hands;
3. Eisenhower: clearly trading on his military triumphs, but you don't need to be smart to be a general;
4. Kennedy: charismatic, but only just managed to scrape past Nixon to gain office. Had he not been assisinated, would we still have this idealised view of what he did?
5. Johnson: old-style, rather saturnine southerner who managed to carry on some of the civil rights work that JFK started, but also took US troops in Vietnam. So not that smart then.
6. Nixon: The only real intellectual heavyweight since FDR. And look where he ended up. Probably the principal reason why Americans don't trust a clever man in the highest office to this day;
7. Ford: decent, but only got the job by being the last man standing after Watergate.
8. Carter: won because he was the down-home peanut farmer form Georgia. A bright guy but he didn't play on that for the electorate. Unlucky. and much underrated;
9. Reagan: the start of the cult of dumb. Need I say more?
10. Bush Snr: got the job by virtue of his closeness with Reagan, and the fact he was running against the patently crap Michael Dukakis;
11. Clinton: fearsomely intelligent, but you wouldn't have known that from the campaigning. Used his enormous charisma and marketed himself as a good-ol' Arkansas boy to get the seat. And even kept up the pretence a little after he won;
12. GWB: at heart I don't think Bush is that stupid (I don't think that's actually possible), but he seems to embrace ignorance in an entirely unhealthy way.

The fact is, looking at that list post-WWII, US voters don't go for clever. And McCain looks spectacularly dumb from this side of the pond. Looks like Obama's going to have to think his strategy through really carefully to have any chance of convincing the great American public.